Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Dropping Anytime Soon…

Why Mortgage Rates Aren’t Dropping Anytime Soon — And What You Should Do About It

In today’s volatile mortgage market, many borrowers are asking the same question: “Should I lock in my rate now or wait?” As a seasoned mortgage lender who regularly analyzes the bond markets, here’s the truth — mortgage rates are still on an upward trajectory, and the data supports it.

Mortgage rates have long mirrored the 10-Year Treasury yield. Historically, there’s a 2 to 2.5-point spread between the two, meaning if the 10-Year is at 4.3%, you’re likely looking at mortgage rates around 6.3%–6.8%. Today’s market reflects an established uptrend in the 10-Year Treasury, making lower rates unlikely without a major economic shift.

Using basic chart analysis, I’ve identified that we’re in a strong upward channel. Past attempts to break below this range have failed. Until a significant event (think major geopolitical conflict or financial crisis) changes the momentum, rates are expected to stay elevated.

If your current lender says rates are about to fall, ask them what chart they’re looking at — and consider a second opinion. As always, data-driven decisions beat emotional guesses. You can track these trends yourself on sites like CNBC by searching “US10Y”.

I’ll continue sharing updates and strategies as markets evolve. For now, smart borrowers are staying informed, locking strategically, and avoiding speculation.

Need guidance on locking your rate at the right time? Let’s talk.